We’ve talked for months about where the world economy is headed next year, and we understand how difficult it can be to navigate this highly uncertain, high-stakes environment. The FrontierView research team publishes new research on global macroeconomic trends and business outlooks that executives rely on these reports to inform their planning – both short-term and long-term – in international markets. As war risks grow more acute, we will continue to make up to-date analysis available to you, so that you can see around the corner and make plans accordingly.
Set yourself up for success in the new year, and take a look at some of our most popular reports:
- Scenarios for China’s Economy
- Russia-Ukraine War: Scenarios for 2023
- Middle East & North Africa Outlook for 2023
- Central Europe Outlook for 2023
- CIS Outlook for 2023
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Report 1: Scenarios for China’s Economy
OVERVIEW: For decades, China has been a reliable growth engine for the world. That time has come to an end. China’s economy is now one of the global portfolio’s biggest sources of uncertainty, and its growth will largely be determined by two factors: zero-COVID and the real estate market. Contrary to what many had hoped, the zero-COVID policy will not be scrapped immediately following the 20th Party Congress. Instead, as China’s most vulnerable are still far from sufficiently vaccinated, we expect China to remain closed until it can roll out an mRNA vaccine developed by one of its own companies. In the meantime, it will continue to pursue a zero-COVID strategy that weighs heavily on growth. Similarly, housing market issues are raising serious headwinds to growth. Highly leveraged developers, under pressure from dwindling sales, mortgage boycotts, and debt repayment deadlines, are struggling to complete projects. Government intervention will be required to stop the vicious cycle, but aid has not been forthcoming. The crisis’s outcome will shape China’s growth—both in the short and long terms.
Report 2: Russia-Ukraine War: Scenarios for 2023
OVERVIEW: The war in Ukraine hit a major inflection point in late September, following major advances of Ukrainian forces that resulted in the Kremlin’s call for mobilization and annexation of four regions of Ukrainian territory. As a result, more extreme and dangerous downside scenarios have become far more likely now, demanding that multinational companies assess likelihoods and their level of exposure to the array of trajectories the war could take. Ultimately, FrontierView believes the war will reach yet another stalemate in 2023, leading to possible ceasefire talks only in late 2023, and the war’s end is only truly possible with the collapse of either the Volodymyr Zelenskiy regime in Kyiv or the Vladimir Putin regime in Moscow. Until then, anticipate further escalation, with elevated likelihoods for downside scenarios, including a potential direct conflict with NATO.
Report 3: Middle East & North Africa Outlook for 2023
OVERVIEW: Economic growth in MENA will moderate slightly, coming down to 4% from its current 4.4%, as the effects of high oil prices stabilize. Nonetheless, MENA energy-exporting markets will continue to attract attention from multinational companies, particularly as the rest of the world suffers impacts from looming recessions through H1 2023. The oil-exporting GCC—led by Saudi Arabia—will see the most investment attention as well as growth expectations from firms, leading to rising competition. Amassed oil revenues will drive investment, as new projects enter implementation phases. However, operating and living costs will remain highly elevated through H1 2023, as inflation fails to come down meaningfully. Financial risk management, talent acquisition, supply chain resilience, and pricing strategies will remain the most important strategic priorities to perfect, as margin erosion ensues through the first six months of the year.
Report 4: Central Europe Outlook for 2023
OVERVIEW: While the region weathered rising macroeconomic pressures through H1 2022 and growth outperformed, persistently high inflation and easing external demand will have a profound impact on domestic consumption and output, driving Central European markets into a contraction through H1 2023. Suspension of gas flows from Russia through the Nord Stream 1 and Yamal pipelines will further add to the existing operational challenges and likely require some form of gas rationing in the upcoming quarters, which will further weigh on economic performance. While inflationary pressures should begin to gradually subside in 2023, headline inflation will remain elevated and well above average EU levels, continuing to bite into real incomes and preventing a more substantial recovery of domestic consumption through H2 2023.
Report 5: CIS Outlook for 2023
OVERVIEW: After demonstrating surprising resilience since the invasion in February, eastern CIS markets will enjoy solid performance in 2023 as well, one of the few regions globally experiencing consistent growth into next year. While the western CIS markets of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus will remain under extreme duress in 2023, in eastern CIS markets, high commodity prices will again allow for strong budgets, underpinning heightened public spending, with a focus on social support, healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Consumer spending will perform strongly again, though sticky, high inflation will weigh on sentiment into early 2023. Risks are considerable, however, as the war in Ukraine and energy war with Europe will stay at a highly tense level for the rest of the year and into 2023, raising the likelihood of extreme Russian retaliation, e.g., ending the grain export deal, use of an unconventional weapon, or cuts to oil/gas exports. Kazakhstan, in particular, could become a major casualty of the energy war, with Russia cutting off its oil exports. Multinational companies need to make broad, strategic decisions related to supply chains and financing to operate effectively in the CIS region.
SAVE 25% ON ANY OF THESE REPORTS WITH PROMO CODE: 2023PLANNING
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