The conviction of Marine Le Pen may upend French politics

Found guilty of misusing EU funds, the far-right leader was banned from running for political office–upsetting the 2027 presidential election campaign.

31 March saw one of the most significant political developments in France since the fall of the Barnier government late last year. Following her conviction for misusing EU funds, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), was sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, a fine of EUR 100,000, and a five-year ban on running for office.

Unless it is overturned on appeal, the political ban–which takes effect immediately–will prevent Le Pen from running in the presidential election scheduled for 2027. This is a major development–Le Pen has campaigned for the presidency three times already, and was a favorite to win the 2027 vote. If her conviction is upheld, Le Pen will likely be replaced as candidate by Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old president of the RN who has become one of the most popular politicians in France.

Business implications:

The verdict will add to political volatility in the next few weeks–though the foreign exchange and stock markets were unaffected by the news, it may dampen business confidence while preventing major policy change. The Socialist Party, the prime minister, and the conservative Republicans disagree about the suitability of Le Pen’s sentence, potentially contributing to tensions within the government bloc. RN supporters will also demonstrate against the verdict this weekend, while the Socialists will circulate a petition in support of the judicial system. Any sustained or violent protests will likely weigh on B2C demand by dampening household confidence and constraining spending in central retail districts.

Looking ahead:

The potential replacement of Le Pen by Bardella would also be significant in the medium term. It is true that a Bardella candidacy would be unlikely to damage the RN’s chances at the next presidential election–while he is perhaps less ‘presidential’ than Le Pen, Bardella is somewhat more popular with French voters.

Nevertheless, the political differences between the two may prove important. Bardella’s economic opinions are seen to be less populist and more ‘liberal’ than Le Pen’s. He is likely more appealing to supporters of the Republicans–a party which supports the current government. Though the Rassemblement National will probably survive Le Pen’s exit from the political scene, French politics as a whole may take a more conservative, business-oriented turn.

Actions to take:

• Be aware of the potential for strikes or protests to disrupt business operations
• Take note of important political and regulatory developments, and the policy positions of major parties
• Despite political volatility, prepare for a muted recovery of consumer spending later this year