Re-election for Nigeria’s ruling party will mean policy continuity

The results of Nigeria’s most highly contested presidential election since its 1999 return to democracy are now in. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC has been elected to take over from President Muhammadu Buhari, who finishes his second term. A handover is scheduled for May 29, 2023.

A likely legal challenge to the result is not expected to change the outcome

Main opposition members are yet to accept defeat, alleging voting irregularities and other electoral misconduct. An anticipated legal challenge to the result is unlikely to cause a change. Yet, a moderate form of election-related anxiety may drag on for months, mildly softening the demand outlook.

Broad policy continuity will sustain longstanding challenges

The APC’s re-election will bring broad policy continuity, helping mitigate uncertainty associated with a change in government. However, it will also mean that the key operational challenges impacting MNCs will remain for the foreseeable future. These include:

  • The acute shortage of FX
  • Import restrictions
  • A high risk of commercial disruption from sudden regulatory changes

FrontierView clients can download our video to watch our analysts discuss the Nigeria election result and its implications for their businesses.

Watch our video on the analysis of the Nigeria election results

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