Each week FrontierView’s global research team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for your business. Have a question for our analysts? Email us at info@frontierview.com to learn more.
Kinnari Gurnani on “Winners and Losers: Who Got How Much in India’s Annual Budget”
“Companies in the industrial and construction sectors will see a boost in demand due to the government’s continued focus on infrastructure spending. However, the budget did not contain new measures to increase consumption in the face of low consumer confidence and below-potential growth. B2C companies expecting strong consumer spending should consider reassessing sales targets.”
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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “UK Economy Slows as Brexit Uncertainty Stalls Services”
“The boost in UK economic activity in Q1 on the back of strong stockpiling was only temporary and the soft data confirms the slowdown in Q2. However, stockpiling will accelerate once again in Q3, in light of the October 31 Brexit deadline. Thus, firms will see a renewed boost to economic figures in Q4 2019. Additionally, lower inflation will aid purchasing power throughout 2019.”
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Emilie Newton on “Canada Posts Surprise Trade Surplus in May”
“Canada’s trade balance has moved positive due to increased auto and oil exports following the end of steel and aluminum tariffs and decreased oil production quotas, respectively. FrontierView will maintain a 1.6% GDP growth rate for Canada as a positive trade balance will add to already strengthening housing markets and a healthy labor market.”
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William Attwell on “South Africa Business Confidence Edges Higher, Down on Year Ago”
“The small rise in business confidence in June foreshadows a likely – but fractional – improvement in investment and economic activity in H2. Thanks to stabilizing prices and reduction in debilitating electricity blackouts (which were primarily behind South Africa’s sharp GDP contraction in Q1), conditions for MNCs and their customers should gradually improve in the coming months.”
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Martin Belchev on “Czech PM Andrej Babis: a Billionaire Survivor Under Pressure”
“Czech PM Babis survived both the massive protests in the capital and a no-confidence vote, in line with DF’s expectations, as his popularity remains high in comparison to other parties and his coalition partners are unlikely to abandon him. MNCs should expect a new wave of protests, likely in November, as investigations against him unravel but overall political risk to the economy remains small.”
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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Greece’s Voters Turn to Establishment Amid Europe’s Populist Wave”
“New Democracy’s lead in popularity translates into victory in the upcoming elections, potentially with a majority. ND’s leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis has managed to increase support for his party, pointing out the numerous Syriza mishandlings since 2015. The change in leadership will enhance the course of the reforms, and FrontierView expects a more favorable economic outlook for 2019-2020.”