Firms should continue to monitor new developments within the Frente Amplio, particularly Gálvez’s continued rise. While it is unlikely that the Frente Amplio will triumph over MORENA in a presidential election, the opposition’s growing momentum could impact the MORENA decision-making process, pushing the party to nominate a candidate that is perceived as better equipped to challenge the opposition on September 6. This scenario could impact Claudia Sheinbaum’s odds of securing the nomination, and potentially even elevate Marcelo Ebrard’s status within MORENA. A win from MORENA next year is still the most likely outcome, but this shakeup from the opposition could introduce an element of unpredictability into the presidential race.
Overview
- Almost a year out from Mexico’s 2024 presidential election, several opposition parties, including three of Mexico’s top parties, the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), and Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) registered a new coalition, the Frente Amplio por Mexico. This follows a mass exodus within the PRI, with the resignation of 320 members due largely to the party’s poor performance at the polls.
- Key candidates for the opposition include legislators Xóchitl Gálvez (PAN), Santiago Creel (PAN), and Beatriz Paredes (PRI). Among the opposition leaders, Gálvez is the clear favorite, polling 10 percentage points ahead of Creel. Gálvez has also received direct criticism from the AMLO administration, a move that has elevated her national recognition.
- Opposition party Movimiento Ciudadano, which until recently had gained momentum in the polls, has not joined the Frente Amplio, though it is facing internal pressure from prominent party figures to sign on to the coalition ahead of the 2024 elections.
Our View
Despite Gálvez’s impressive surge in the polls, we do not believe that she is likely to win the presidential election next year. Nevertheless, her campaign is revitalizing the once-languishing opposition, which could impact MORENA’s pre-electoral strategy. Regardless, our base case remains that MORENA will retain the presidency next year. Not only does fragmentation persist within the opposition, but also 25.9% of Mexicans still state that they are dissatisfied with all the opposition candidates, above Gálvez’s 23.3% support in polls (and Creel’s and Paredes’s respective 10.7% and 8.3%). Unless the opposition rallies behind a candidate that succeeds in energizing voters under one coalition, it will remain unable to pose a risk to MORENA’s dominance. At this juncture, however, this seems unlikely. Movimiento Ciudadano restated on July 14 that it does not plan to join the Frente Amplio. Furthermore, the PRI recently faced a mass exodus with the resignation of 320 members due largely to the party’s poor performance at the polls, further damaging the party’s national standing and weakening its leverage within the coalition.
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