Plan for the war to continue deep into 2023
The war in Ukraine hit a major inflection point in late September, following major advances of Ukrainian forces that resulted in the Kremlin’s call for mobilization and annexation of four regions of Ukrainian territory. As a result, more extreme and dangerous downside scenarios have become far more likely now, demanding that multinationals assess their level of exposure to the array of trajectories the war could take.
Ultimately, FrontierView believes the war will reach yet another stalemate in 2023, leading to possible ceasefire talks only in late 2023. The war’s end is only truly possible with the collapse of either the Volodymyr Zelenskiy regime in Kyiv or the Vladimir Putin regime in Moscow. Until then, anticipate further escalation, with elevated likelihoods for downside scenarios, including a potential direct conflict with NATO.
Our four main scenarios involve a highly complex set of interconnected events and risks
- Scenario 1: Outright Russian victory
- Scenario 2: Ukraine wins, Russia pulls out
- Scenario 3: Frozen conflict – FrontierView’s base-case scenario
- Scenario 4: Direct Russia-NATO confrontation
Within each scenario, we highlight the implications for the global economy and the impact to investors. We also address the risk of this becoming a war with NATO and therefore a possible nuclear escalation, and the potential triggers that could bring about.
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