Plan for the war to continue deep into 2023

The war in Ukraine hit a major inflection point in late September, following major advances of Ukrainian forces that resulted in the Kremlin’s call for mobilization and annexation of four regions of Ukrainian territory. As a result, more extreme and dangerous downside scenarios have become far more likely now, demanding that multinationals assess their level of exposure to the array of trajectories the war could take. 

Ultimately, FrontierView believes the war will reach yet another stalemate in 2023, leading to possible ceasefire talks only in late 2023. The war’s end is only truly possible with the collapse of either the Volodymyr Zelenskiy regime in Kyiv or the Vladimir Putin regime in Moscow. Until then, anticipate further escalation, with elevated likelihoods for downside scenarios, including a potential direct conflict with NATO.

Our four main scenarios involve a highly complex set of interconnected events and risks

  • Scenario 1: Outright Russian victory
  • Scenario 2: Ukraine wins, Russia pulls out
  • Scenario 3: Frozen conflict – FrontierView’s base-case scenario
  • Scenario 4: Direct Russia-NATO confrontation
Russia-Ukraine War Scenarios: Overview

Within each scenario, we highlight the implications for the global economy and the impact to investors. We also address the risk of this becoming a war with NATO and therefore a possible nuclear escalation, and the potential triggers that could bring about.

Now is the time to start your free trial to access our 2023 Russia-Ukraine war scenarios and stay ahead of the curve with our prescient analysis and actionable insights.

At FrontierView, our mission is to help our clients grow and win in their most important markets. We are excited to share that FiscalNote, a leading technology provider of global policy and market intelligence has acquired FrontierView. We will continue to cover issues and topics driving growth in your business, while fully leveraging FiscalNote’s portfolio within the global risk, ESG, and geopolitical advisory product suite.

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