This Week in The Lens

The Lens is FrontierView’s weekly newsletter published by our Global Economics and Scenarios team. Each week, The Lens features easily digestible content that dives into the business implications of macroeconomics on the market today.

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Economic and geopolitical trends and insights from FrontierView’s Global Economics and Research team
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November 30th November 23rd November 16th November 9th November 2nd

The seesaw of oil prices continues: after a seemingly unstoppable rally late in the summer that saw oil prices almost touch $100/barrel, the price of Brent crude has fallen back down to the low 80’s. 

Oil traders are grumpy about the messaging being pushed by central banks, which is that interest rates will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, weighing on global growth and therefore oil demand. Supply concerns also seem to have been alleviated, thanks to strong production in the US, and the limited risk of spillover in the Israel-Hamas war. As recent evidence suggests, this all but guarantees further production cuts by OPEC, but the organization is mired in internal disagreements and was forced to postpone its meeting last week as a result.

Keep a close eye on oil prices in 2024. If they run much higher, central banks will start fretting about sticky inflation. If they fall much lower, consumer purchasing power will recover faster, while OPEC and Russia would find themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either way, the seesaw is set to continue in 2024.

Analyst, Global Economics

As we expected,  Javier Milei  was elected president of Argentina on Sunday, creating huge uncertainty for businesses on the future of economic policy in the market. This is just one of the elections we’re watching closely for the next 12 months. Overall, we see considerable political risk looming over the outlook for 2024 — from a highly polarized US election, to risks with the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. 

We’ll cover our perspectives in our upcoming webinar on Events to Watch for 2024. Please  join us for a provocative discussion on what disruptive events companies need to consider as they finalize 2024 plans.  

Martina Bozadzhieva

Chief Research Officer

It is a busy week for the leaders of the world’s major economies. In San Francisco, Joe Biden is holding a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping for only the second time since he took office in 2021, as both countries seek a thaw in their relationship. The Japanese government, meanwhile, is putting the finishing touches on a  13.2tn yen stimulus package  which it hopes will boost consumption. In the UK, Rishi Sunak has reshuffled his cabinet, ousting controversial Home Secretary Suella Braverman and bringing in a young, fresh-faced, and little-known politician by the name of David Cameron as his Foreign Secretary.

Their efforts are not necessarily benign – 2024 is a crucial year for each of these leaders. Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak both face elections amid low (and falling) approval ratings, while rumors abound that Japan’s stimulus package is a way for Fumio Kishida to boost his own ratings ahead of a potential snap vote. MNCs should monitor this week’s events closely – they might just set the tone for next year’s elections.

Analyst, Global Economics

What happens if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump is unable to complete their run for the US’s 2024 presidential election? What are the risks of a large spike in oil prices and how could that affect global financial stability? What happens if the EU dramatically pulls back on its green agenda following parliamentary elections next summer? Is there a chance of a broader Middle East conflict and what would that look like?

These are among the questions we’re exploring in our upcoming report on events to watch for 2024—our perspective on the low-likelihood, high-impact events global businesses need to have on their radar as they pressure-test 2024 plans. To see the full list and our assessment of their likelihood and impact on businesses,   join us for our webinar on November 30. 

Martina Bozadzhieva

Chief Research Officer

The American consumer: indefatigable, free-spending, grumpy.

The US’s GDP data for the third quarter came in at a blistering 4.9% (QOQ, annualized), far above predictions and at over twice the pace of the previous quarter. While nearly all components of GDP grew, consumer spending alone accounted for half of that growth, even despite two years of elevated inflation. The US economy is firing on all cylinders and outperforming its peers. 

Curiously, however, consumer confidence is far below where one would expect it to be given the current state of the economy. This disconnect between economic performance and consumer confidence is puzzling – and concerning, if your name is Joe Biden. MNCs should keep a close eye on gauges of consumer confidence in the run-up to the presidential election next year: after all, the American consumer is also the American voter.

Antoine Bradley

Analyst, Global Economics

Read our insights from this week:

Ghana's budget

Ghana’s 2024 budget speech yields opportunities

Successful domestic debt restructuring and the IMF program have improved the fiscal outlook for 2024 Firms can expect a rebound in public sector demand in 2024 that will center on the government’s flagship programs in infrastructure, agriculture, and healthcare. Multinationals should carefully examine the following projects: […]
by Sari El Habr
on Nov 30
Read more
Ecuador is on the brink of a constitutional crisis

Daniel Noboa kicks off his presidency in Ecuador

Maintaining his coalition in the National Assembly will be one of Noboa’s main challenges in making progress on his agenda Although Noboa currently has a coalition to facilitate governance in the early months of his presidency, this is something that could change rapidly once the campaigns […]
by Javier Fernando Fajardo
on Nov 30
Read more

US growth is set to slow, but it will likely avoid a recession

Lower inflation and a robust labor market will keep the US economy in expansive territory Overall, the US will continue to present significant growth opportunities compared with other major markets, notably in Europe. Firms in the B2B and B2C space, however, should draw up their 2024 […]
by Antoine Bradley
on Nov 30
Read more
all insights

The Authors

Martina Bozadzhieva

Chief Research Officer

Antoine Bradley

Analyst, Global Economics

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