There are only 32 days left until the 2024 US election, and the race could hardly be any closer. While Kamala Harris has taken a solid lead at the national level, she and Donald Trump remain tied in the critical swing states that will define the outcome of the contest.

Globally, the candidates face a difficult landscape, and will need to manage a host of challenging situations: a critical escalation of fighting in the Middle East, an uncertain and volatile situation in Ukraine, and deteriorated US-China relations. At home, the next president will have the opportunity to decide tax policy for decades to come, appoint the next chair of the Federal Reserve, and decide the future of America’s industrial strategy. 

To help MNCs stay ahead of the curve, we recently released our  US Election Scenarios report , which provides a detailed look at each of these critical policy questions (and more) under a range of different scenarios. Given the uncertainty around the outcome of the election, and the stakes involved, this report is a must-read for executives.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

In recent days, an already tense situation in the Middle East took a potentially critical turn, as Israel and Hezbollah stepped up the intensity of their fighting. This comes following weeks of increasing tensions, including a dramatic attack on Hezbollah’s communication network, an aerial raid on southern Beirut, and rockets fired towards Tel Aviv.

At the time of writing, the exact outcome of the escalation remains unclear. But it drives home a critical point about the Levant, and the wider Middle East: the current situation is a fundamentally unpredictable one with potentially global consequences, should wider war break out. Our  recently released scenarios  are here to help MNCs monitor and navigate this incredibly volatile and complex situation.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

In most areas of life, half a percent implies only a minor change. In the context of US monetary policy, it signifies the start of a major new chapter.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, the first reduction in four years, marking the end of one of the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades.

For multinationals, the cut is good news: it implies that the global inflationary shock of the early 2020’s is well and truly over, with virtually all major central banks having now started to reduce their own rates – this means a more stable price environment, and lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers alike. On the other hand, the reduction in interest rates also comes amid signs that the US economy, although still strong, is showing signs of weakening. Add to that the uncertainty around the election, and the outlook is tricky one to assess for the US.

Still, the cut has been a long time coming, and will help relieve pressure off the global economy. MNCs should welcome this.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

With just over 100 days to go until 2025, the outlook for the global economy is, slowly but surely, becoming clearer. 

A few things we know already: growth issues in major economic centers such as China and Europe will likely persist, lower inflation will allow interest rates to come down, and governments are likely to tighten their belts as they face higher debt loads.

But there also remain some fundamental uncertainties: who is going to win the US election, and what will be the impact? How much will Chinese overcapacity affect the global economy? Where will interest rates settle?

And then, there is the fact that the global economy remains vulnerable to the “unknown unknowns” – these potential events, whether they be geopolitical, climate-related, or other unforeseen crises.

Our newly released  Global Outlook for 2025  provides our latest and clearest view on the trajectory of the global economy, and is a must-read for multinationals looking to excel in this complex and uncertain environment.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics