This Week in The Lens

The Lens is FrontierView’s weekly newsletter published by our Global Economics and Scenarios team. Each week, The Lens features easily digestible content that dives into the business implications of macroeconomics on the market today.

Economic and geopolitical trends and insights from FrontierView’s Global Economics and Research team

Last week, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a thumping majority, putting an end to 14 years of Conservative rule. In doing so, he bucks a trend toward right-wing populism that is underway in several of the UK’s peer countries.

In France, the US, and Italy, among others, far-right parties and candidates have made significant strides in the past few months and years. Whether this dynamic is short-lived or part of a wider, more structural shift in politics remains to be seen. Still, their recent progress is undeniable.

MNCs should pay attention to this—navigating these turbulent political waters is more critical than ever. Ensure flexibility, invest in political risk analysis, and be prepared to pivot strategies as the political landscape continues to evolve.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

A week ago, it was all but certain that Joe Biden would be the Democratic candidate in the 2024 election. Now, that doesn’t seem so sure. 

The US president’s performance in last Thursday’s debate, in which he looked frail and confused, has caused panic among Democrats, several of whom are now calling for him to make way for another candidate. But with just four months to go to the election, and a relatively weak roster of potential replacements, that strategy is unlikely to be successful.

What does all this mean for MNCs? Without a doubt, prepare now for  a second Trump presidency .

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

This week, the two men vying for the White House will participate in the first televised debate of the 2024 US election. Their combined age is 159.

Biden’s age, at 81 years old, is a concern amongst voters, many of whom doubt his mental acuity. But Donald Trump, only 4 years his junior, has also had his share of slip-ups – voters and the media will be scrutinizing both candidates’ energy and fitness for office.

Beyond their age, the debate will shed light on the candidates’ positions (and divergence) in key policy areas that would affect MNCs, such as trade, tax policy, and the fate of existing industrial policy acts. Executives should watch closely.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

Gabriel Attal became Prime Minister of France in January at the tender age of 34, the youngest to ever be in the post. Yet his record might be broken by early July.

Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old firebrand who heads up the far-right Rassemblement National, could soon be taking Mr. Attal’s job, as a result of the snap legislative election in France. Beyond his age, it is Mr. Bardella’s policies that have businesses and investors worried: proposals to undo France’s pension reform, cut VAT, and raise taxes on businesses have sent French financial markets into a frenzy. President Emmanuel Macron also faces a threat from the far-left, whose policies are equally alarming to investors.

While a far-right win would have predominantly domestic impacts, it would also have political and financial repercussions beyond the borders of France, such as euro volatility, an increase in borrowing costs, and momentum for far-right parties globally. MNCs in Europe and beyond should brace for impact.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

Given the number of elections this year, we were bound to get a few surprises. But the past few weeks have exceeded expectations.

In Mexico, the MORENA party outperformed projections, securing the presidency and a legislative majority. In India, Narendra Modi’s BJP was unexpectedly pushed into a coalition for the first time in a decade. Meanwhile, South Africa’s ANC is experiencing its first coalition scenario since the end of apartheid.

Some election outcomes even triggered new ones: following his party’s disappointing showing in the European Parliament election, France’s Emmanuel Macron called for a snap legislative vote in a bold challenge to the far-right.

With several elections still to come in 2024, including the United States, businesses should ensure their strategies leave room for surprises. 

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

Read our insights from this week:

The market’s fiscal outlook already led Moody’s to change its perspective for Colombia from stable to negative In its mid-term financial plan documents, also known as the Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo, Colombia’s government stated that it will increase this year’s public deficit from the originally […]
Spending under the 2025 budget will be the highest on record as the government tries to support economic growth Thailand’s budget bureau has released details on the country’s spending plans for the 2025 fiscal year, which spans from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025. The […]
Uncertainty surrounding the approval of a 2025 budget will continue to pose risk of a credit downgrade While the results of the second round of the French parliamentary elections are in line with our expectations that no single party will command a majority, an NFP victory […]

The Author

Antoine Bradley

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

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