Tighter restrictions across Europe and work-from-home guidelines in the UK will soften demand in the service sector. While full lockdown scenarios remain unlikely due to booster shots and mandatory vaccination, MNCs should account for a high risk of demand volatility and strategic planning. Firms should continue to grow their e-commerce channels, as consumer digital sales will likely see a boost in the short term.


The UK reintroduced guidance to work from home and mandatory COVID passes for large venues, with vaccinations targeting one million daily doses. In Germany, thousands protested against COVID restrictions for the unvaccinated. France will close nightclubs for one month, as hospitals are expecting the Omicron wave to hit in January.

daily new, confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people (omicron wave)

Our View

With mandatory vaccinations and booster shots, the wave of current restrictions is not expected to significantly impact the recovery pace in Europe. In the short term, FrontierView expects a decrease in retail foot traffic and some demand disruptions in the service industry. International tourism could also be impacted as countries require increased proof of vaccination and negative PCR tests. However, in countries with strong digital channels already in place, such as France, the UK, and Germany, MNCs will be able to rely on e-commerce to capture existing demand. Firms should continue to track policy measures and adapt their offerings to match demand opportunities.

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