Each week FrontierView’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for your business. Have a question for our analysts? Email us at info@duckerfrontier.com to learn more.

Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Brexit Deadlock Weighs on UK Economy”

“MNCs should expect subdued economic growth in 2019 due to extended Brexit uncertainty and a broader eurozone slowdown. Despite an improvement in consumer spending thanks to a faster retreat in inflation, continued uncertainty will weigh on investment and business demand as well as consumer and business confidence in 2019. For more information see our latest WEUR Quarterly Market Review.”

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Mark McNamee on “World Bank lowers Russia’s 2019 GDP forecast to 1.4 pct”

“Not just lower oil prices but also very weak business and consumer sentiment likewise encouraged FrontierView to revise down Russia’s 2019 growth months ago. The market is likely to have hit its low point and will slowly recover, with more resilient demand anticipated in H2. In particular, consumer spending has already seen a mild bounceback in sentiment in March.”

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Ryan Connelly on “U.S. Jobs Grew by 196,000 in March”

“Markets were very nervous about the US economy, as reflected by the yield curve inversion last week, but today’s job numbers reflect ongoing strength in the economy. This is a robust amount of new job creation this late in the economic cycle. And concerns about inflation are muted by the slight slip in nominal wage gains. The Fed is maintaining lower rates to keep the economy going strong.”

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Pratima Singh on “India’s Central Bank Cuts Key Lending Rate to 6.0%”

“As expected, the RBI cut rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year to boost slowing economic growth. However, the transmission of these rate cuts by banks to borrowers will be critical to ease constraints and improve liquidity in the market. As elections begin next week, executives should expect to see an increase in uncertainty despite limited change in India’s business environment.”

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William Attwell on “Africa Growth at 7-Year High, No Thanks to Its Major Economies”

“While we view the AfDB’s forecast for South Africa’s 2019 GDP growth to be too high (it expects 2% while our expectation is a more somber 1.1%), the bank is nevertheless on the mark in its assessment that East Africa will again be a key motor of SSA’s overall growth performance. Expect Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Rwanda all to attract increased attention from MNCs in the next 12 months.”

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Ashu Agarwal on “Inflation eases further to 3.3% in March 2019”

“Philippines’ inflation eased to a 15-month low after continuously rising for 10 months in 2018 to 6.8%. This is likely to help boost consumer spending growth in the year, after seeing a moderate decline in growth levels in 2018. Furthermore, the resulting interest rate cuts by the central bank in the upcoming months may help reduce lending rates and support domestic investment growth.”

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Mansour El-Zahab on “Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika Abruptly Resigns”

“Bouteflika steps down abruptly as threats of impeachment beckon. Algeria is pushed further into its uncertain transitional phase, with an interim president taking over for up to 90 days. FrontierView expects protests to continue, as Algerians push for the entire regime to bow down. Executives should monitor protests as signposts to consumer spending which is likely to remain resilient for now.”

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