Each week FrontierView’s global research team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for your business. Have a question for our analysts? Email us at info@duckerfrontier.com to learn more.

Alex Schober on “National Strike Paralyzes Argentina Amid Economic Woes

“Multinationals should continue to expect social and economic volatility leading up to the presidential elections. While this national strike had a marginal economic impact, events like this are relatively commonplace in Argentina, and the economic impact of such social unrest is priced into our forecasts. Market sentiment and economic indicators have otherwise been better than expected in May.”

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William Attwell on “South Africa Cabinet Excludes Several Embroiled in Scandals”

“President Ramaphosa’s new cabinet reveals the political constraints limiting his ability to push his reform agenda and clean up state institutions. While reformists have been handed many of the critical portfolios, such as finance and infrastructure, some populist figures such as Deputy President Mabuza remain in place and are likely to resist pro-business reforms and anti-corruption measures.”

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Martin Belchev on “Romanian Social Democrat Leader Dragnea Sentenced to Jail”

“The head of Romania’s ruling Social Democrats, Liviu Dragnea, was sentenced to three and a half years, and will be unable to appeal. Acting party leader and PM Dancila quickly distanced herself, and announced ministerial changes. The party suffered a major defeat in both the EP elections and the justice reforms referendum, which may lead to internal party rifts and increase policy uncertainty.”

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Greek Leader Calls for Surprise Early Elections”

“To its surprise, the ruling Syriza party suffered heavy losses in the European elections, and Syriza hopes evaporated. This forced PM Tsipras to call for early elections on July 7. Greeks treated the elections as a protest vote to austerity measures, ahead of the planned elections in October. Markets welcomed the development, pricing in a more pro-business government, led by New Democracy in H2 2019.”

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Ashu Agarwal on “Thai Pro-Military Party Closer to Sealing Ruling Coalition”

“The Pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party looks set to put incumbent leader Prayut Chan-ocha in power and form a 20-party coalition government with a majority in the lower house. While managing the competing priorities of 20 parties will likely be a challenge, a majority will still provide strong support for Prayut’s economic policies. This is particularly true for those related to the Eastern Economic Corridor.”

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Pratima Singh on “Victorious Modi to Take a Slow and Steady Approach With India’s Economy”

“Executives should manage over-optimistic expectations and build a realistic view of India’s economic future. The Modi government is unlikely to implement large scale structural reforms. It will continue to focus on gradual policy adjustments and increasing infrastructure investment. Expect localization pressures to continue, particularly as job creation becomes more of a focus in the new term.”

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Alex Schober on “Poll: Macri Would Win in a Run-Off Against Alberto Fernandez With Projection of Undecided Voters”

“We take polls regarding Argentina’s election with a grain of salt. However, a common trend across pollsters is that Cristina Kirchner’s surprise VP declaration has had little effect on voting intentions. We believe that her attempt to attract moderate voters will reduce the probability of a pragmatic Peronism victory, while increasing the likelihood of our base case and downside scenarios.”

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Martin Belchev on “Polish Prime Minister Makes Social Spending Pledge Before Vote”

“In a surprising ruling, EU judges announced that the suspended Polish tax on large retailers is not a state aid, and is thus not illegal. The decision will by appealed by the EC. This means that the tax may return at the end of 2020 at the earliest. If the ruling is confirmed, it may pave the way for similar taxes across the region, as governments look for revenues to maintain social spending.”

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