Each week FrontierView’s global research team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for your business. Have a question for our analysts? Email us at info@duckerfrontier.com to learn more.

Ashu Agarwal on “Indonesia plans more tax breaks to lift GDP growth

“The government has raised the luxury tax threshold for houses to support the property sector, is planning on providing tax incentives for companies investing in R&D, and is considering lowering corporate income tax rates. These measures are likely to put pressure on governments budgets. A worsening fiscal account will force the government to cut spending to achieve its fiscal deficit target.”

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Alex Schober on “Unemployment in Argentina eclipsed 10% and reached its highest level in 13 years”

“Argentina’s unemployment rate reached 10.1% in Q1 due to the recession. This trend is unlikely to reverse in Q2 and Q3 due to MNCs either cutting or putting investments on hold until there is more electoral certainty. Fast-moving economic indicators also suggest deteriorating labor market conditions. We forecast 10.2% unemployment rate for 2019, but will consider revising our projection upward.”

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Matthew Kindinger on “Nigeria to shut bank accounts of firms which import FX restricted goods”

“The Central Bank of Nigeria has threatened to close bank accounts of companies found to be importing products on which foreign currency access restrictions are in place. Products most affected are basic consumer goods and certain pharmaceutical products. MNCs should anticipate ongoing difficulties accessing foreign currency as the central bank faces pressure to defend the value of the naira.”

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Kinnari Gurnani on “India to Impose Its Own Tariffs on Some Goods Imported from the US”

“India’s tariffs on 29 US food products is the latest in a series of protectionist trade measures taken by the two countries in the past year. Tariffs and localization pressures will be central to the upcoming bilateral talks. MNCs should consider using scenarios to examine the likelihood of increased protectionism. For more details on our economic outlook read our India Market Review.”

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Alec Lee on “Odebrecht Bankruptcy to Hurt Brazilian State-Owned Banks”

“The biggest worry would be on potential mortgage loan origination from Caixa Federal. However, Brazil’s financial sector overall remains in relatively robust health and is positioned to strongly expand credit origination following pension reform.”

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Emilie Newton on “Canadian crude Gulf Coast exports rise as Venezuelan gap is filled: trade sources”

“Canada softened oil production quotas added in January 2019, increasing production by 25,000 b/d in both March and June. This action, coupled with increased transportation volume due to rising summer temperatures, has increased overall oil production and sale to the US. This will help fuel Alberta’s recovery, which should increase jobs and add to overall stronger growth for Canada in H2 2019.”

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Ramiro Sugranes on “Colombia rate will be held through end of year, inflation on the rise: Reuters poll”

“We expect Colombia’s central bank to hold its benchmark policy rate steady at 4.25% during its meeting on Friday, which will continue to support the modest economic recovery underway. Our growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.0% for 2019. Firms should expect similar growth in 2020 as the economy approaches potential growth levels, but key risks—including fiscal and external—should be monitored.”

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