Each week FrontierView’s global research team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for your business.
Ashu Agarwal on “American Tariffs on China Are Being Blunted by Trade Cheats“
“Failure to effectively crack down on Chinese companies using Vietnam as a transshipment hub could result in the US taking punitive trade actions against Vietnam. Since the US is the largest export destination for Vietnam, trade restrictions would have a significantly negative impact on Vietnam’s external sector and economic growth.”
Alex Schober on “Argentina’s economic activity fell 1.3% in April, but it is showing signs of recovery”
“Argentina’s economic activity index (EMAE) showed a 0.8% MOM increase in April. However, growth was almost entirely led by agriculture, which expanded 40.2% YOY. Most other indicators moderated but still contracted. We continue to believe Argentina will not begin to recover on an annualized basis until Q3 at the earliest.”
Matthew Kindinger on “Nigeria: Finally, Nigeria to Sign African Continental Free Trade Agreement”
“MNCs should not expect a rapid removal of trade barriers following the Nigerian government’s decision to sign up to the AfCFTA. The government will seek an extension of the timelines for implementing the AfCFTA to minimize the adverse impacts on Nigerian companies, while forex shortages, and inefficient port infrastructure and bureaucracy will dampen the positive impacts of the AfCFTA for MNCs.”
Kinnari Gurnani on “Top U.S., Indian Diplomats Try to Work Past Tariff Dispute”
“The meeting between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar prior to the G20 Summit signaled that despite trade tensions simmering between the US and India over the past year, both countries intend to continue their positive bilateral relationship. While neither country is likely to withdraw the tariffs already imposed, an escalation of tensions is unlikely.”
Emilie Newton on “Canada’s farm labor shortage is costing billions and expected to rise: report”
“Increasing labor deficits will lead to a decrease in acres planted, weighing on overall growth in Canada’s agricultural sector. Firms should experience an increase in demand for labor saving equipment to fill the growing gap. Furthermore, market adaption is required in order to fill Trudeau’s challenge to increase overall agricultural exports.”
Ramiro Sugranes on “Dominican Republic’s congress is militarized amid reelection protests”
“President Danilo Medina’s potential reelection bid has sparked protests and violence outside the nation’s congress. A Medina candidacy would pose a major political risk to the nation’s growth outlook as he is legally barred from seeking a third term, which would require a constitutional reform—generating institutional risks. Firms should brace for a period of heightened political uncertainty.”