While we do not foresee elections in 2024, we maintain our view of high political risk in Peru
On March 14, a local news agency reported an investigation revealing that President Dina Boluarte owns a broad collection of luxury watches. Moreover, Peru’s Financial Intelligence Unit disclosed that the president had received over PEN 1.1 million (around USD 300,000) in her accounts from unknown sources. Thus, on March 29, Peru’s National Police raided the president’s home as part of an investigation into alleged illicit enrichment and money laundering. Boluarte denounced what she described as systematic harassment and reaffirmed her intention to remain in office until 2026. As the risk of political instability remains high, multinationals should strengthen relationships with influential and emerging politicians from various parties, given the potential for policy changes. Clients should incorporate the effects of high political risk in their scenario-based planning, considering trigger points related to social unrest and deterioration of business confidence.
Overview
- Amid an escalating scandal, President Boluarte delivered a nationwide speech, surrounded by her cabinet, stating that the police raid threatens the country’s democracy. Similarly, Prime Minister Adrianzen labeled the actions unconstitutional and an intolerable attack on Peru’s governability.
- While private companies and business associations in Peru urged the president to clarify the possession of luxury watches, the business community also called for a fair investigation and expressed concerns over the raid and its negative impact on the country’s institutional framework.
- Regarding the legislative branch’s reactions, a deputy from Peru Libre, the president’s former party, filed a new impeachment motion, while Fuerza Popular, Alianza para el Progreso, Renovación Popular, Acción Popular, and Somos Perú issued statements questioning the raid on Boluarte’s house.
- The impeachment procedure requires a motion signed by at least 20% of Congress members (26 deputies). Then, to accept the motion and proceed with the discussion, at least 40% of congressional members (52 deputies) must vote in favor. An impeachment necessitates a qualified majority of no less than two-thirds of Congress.
Our View
Boluarte’s term is scheduled to conclude in July 2026, and she is prohibited from seeking re-election. According to recent polls, the presidential approval rating remains notably low, at around 9% of respondents, mirroring the widespread unpopularity of Congress. However, according to the Ombudsman’s Office, social instability indicators, such as collective protest actions or blockades, remain significantly below levels registered in Q1 2023. Since January 2023, the president has withstood two attempts to oust her from office due to strategic alliances with traditional parties in Congress and a commitment to a moderate policy agenda. Although further corruption scandals could weaken this alliance, opposition parties hold only about 41 seats, well below the 86 votes needed to secure an impeachment. Thus, we maintain our view that Boluarte will remain in office until 2026; however, our scenarios lean slightly toward the downside, given the elevated risk of further political instability. In 2024, we continue to anticipate a robust economic recovery of 2.2% YOY, with investment rebounding by around 1.2%. The downside scenario forecasts weak growth performance (0.9% YOY) partially driven by a major political crisis, implying no recovery in private investment and lower execution rates at the public level.
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