FrontierView believes there is a 30% chance of Brexit – the UK’s exit from the EU – actually occurring. While far from a likelihood, the possibility remains significant enough that multinationals need to have at least a basic plan that takes into account how Brexit will affect their customers (both in the UK and in the rest of Europe), supply chains, costs, and regulations they need to comply with. If the UK votes for Brexit on June 23rd, the effects will be rapid, and it will be much more difficult to plan from scratch.
With these risks in mind, FrontierView will be publishing a Rapid Response Brief to help multinationals understand what to expect. The report will cover various topics, including the ways in which both individual consumers and businesses operating in the UK will be impacted by:
- Depreciation of the British Pound after a vote to leave
- The future of trade agreements and regulations
- Changes to the labor market and potential future income growth
Beyond this, the report will dive into the ways in which specific industries will be affected, including the hospitality industry, health care, financial services, manufacturing and different kinds of exporters, and which of these industries stand to win or lose. It will cover the potential supply chain disruptions (or lack thereof) associated with the likely alternative trading arrangements with the EU after Britain withdraws from the Union, as well as cost considerations from changes in access to the Single Market and issues of compliance with shifting regulations.
Finally, it will cover the various pan-European issues associated with Brexit, as well as political considerations specific to the UK. This includes the ways in which Brexit will play into the narrative of anti-EU populists across Europe, the impact on the broader European investment climate and other external trade agreements like TTIP, as well as its likely impact on the value of the Euro. Brexit will also upend British politics, raising the possibility of a change in Conservative Party leadership and snap elections, as well as reopening the question of Scotland’s future within the United Kingdom.
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