FrontierView’s Latin America research team is currently offering a series of webinars exploring the volatile economic environments of seven countries across the region amid the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. You can find information on each country-specific Latin America webinar below:
1. Navigating COVID-19 and post-pandemic scenarios for Mexico | Access the full recording here
Mexico is headed into a deep recession in 2020 given the combination of severe economic contraction in the US, and the poor handling of the pandemic by Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, both from a virus containment and economic stimulus standpoints. These factors will not just shape how Mexico recovers from COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021, but also the rest of Mexico’s sexenio.
2. Navigating Argentina’s COVID-19 and debt negotiation scenarios | Access the full recording here
Although Argentina was early to react to COVID-19, it will nonetheless contract severely in 2020 given the negative effects of social distancing measures and a subdued external environment. Argentina is facing a perfect storm as the coronavirus pandemic has coincided with critical external debt negotiations. The outcome of these negotiations will dictate not just how strongly Argentina can emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the outlook for the country over the next five to ten years.
3. Navigating COVID-19 and post-pandemic scenarios for Brazil | Access the full recording here
Brazil is headed into a deep recession in 2020 given the negative effects of social distancing measures applied at the state and municipal levels to contain COVID-19, and a subdued external environment. Brazil should start rebounding already in Q3 of this year, but companies should rely on alternative scenarios as political factors regain center stage, potentially delaying the country’s recovery.
4. Navigating COVID-19 and post-pandemic scenarios for Colombia | Wed, June 10, 9:00am – 10:00am EST | Access the full recording here
Although Colombia was early to react to COVID-19 and has been handling the pandemic better than most, it will nonetheless contract severely in 2020 given the negative effects of social distancing measures and a subdued external environment, especially as it pertains to record-low oil prices. Colombia should start rebounding already in Q3 of this year and into 2021, but companies should rely on alternative scenarios given the country’s already fragile finances, ongoing social unrest before COVID-19, and unresolved tensions stemming from the peace accord implementation and immigration pressures from Venezuela.
5. Navigating COVID-19 and post-pandemic scenarios for Peru | Wed, June 17, 9:00am – 10:00am EST | Access the full recording here
Although Peru was the first country to react to COVID-19 by closing its borders and imposing a nationwide quarantine on March 15, it will nonetheless contract severely in 2020 given the negative effects of social distancing measures and a subdued external environment. Peru, together with Chile, enjoys the healthiest fiscal position in the region, allowing the government to implement more aggressive countercyclical policies to counteract the effects of the country’s lockdown, and leading to a stronger rebound in H2 and in 2021 than in most other markets in Latin America. However, companies should continue to rely on scenario and contingency planning, as many questions still remain as to whether Peru and its key trading partners will have to face new COVID-19 waves this year and the next.
6. Navigating COVID-19 and post-pandemic scenarios for Chile | Wed, June 24, 9:00am – 10:00am EST | Access the full recording here
Although Chile was one of the first countries to react to COVID-19 in Latin America, it will nonetheless contract severely in 2020 given the negative effects of social distancing measures and a subdued external environment. Chile, together with Peru, enjoys the healthiest fiscal position in the region, allowing the government to more strongly mitigate the effects of the country’s targeted lockdowns. As Chile emerges from COVID-19, political factors, namely the constitutional reform will regain center stage, adding more uncertainty to an already uncertain economic outlook for the country.
7. Navigating COVID-19 and post-pandemic scenarios for Central America and the Caribbean | Wed, July 15, 11:00am – 12:00pm EST | Access the full recording here
Central America and the Caribbean will not escape economic recession in 2020, and face a more challenging recovery outlook than many other markets in Latin America. Falling exports, remittances, and tourism will depress external demand in 2020, while domestic demand will be severely impacted by social distancing measures. How strongly the region emerges from COVID-19 will depend on the strength US recovery, but tourism-dependent markets are likely to see a more protracted recovery that could last for at least two years.
Our experts are constantly reevaluating Latin America’s forecasts as the region begins to recover from COVID-19 and the outlook for the global economy evolves. Subscribe to The Lens, our weekly newsletter covering the latest global events impacting your business for our most up-to-date coverage on COVID-19, or visit the COVID-19 Resource Hub on our website.