At FrontierView, our research, data, and insights cover over 200 markets to guide your business through your exit from the pandemic in your most important markets. Our in-depth coverage across the Middle East and North Africa is built to help you feel confident in your strategic decisions. Read our latest analysis on Pakistan, Iraq, and Morocco below.
Pakistan’s economy will recovery slowly after the shock of COVID-19, and not see substantial growth until 2022. However, we expect that economic growth will rebound next year as global demand improves and the funding from the IMF’s bailout stabilizes the domestic economy. Headline inflation is expected to remain high through this year, with restricted agriculture production and fuel price hikes keeping costs high. This will not deter the manufacturing sector, which will continue to recoup its losses from 2020 on the back of base effects.
Iraq’s economy could take until the end of 2023 to recover to 2019 levels. Dinar’s devaluation was a preemptive move to ease the financial pressure from the oil shock, but the move weighs on consumption and will intensify inflationary pressures this year. Borrowing costs will likely grow as US dollars become more costly to banks, and credit transfers are witnessing the longest declining period since 2016.
Morocco’s consumer spending was structurally harmed by the pandemic. Consumer spending’s recovery will be delayed as household confidence remains fragile ahead of real income uncertainties and COVID-19 created long-lasting damage to employment. EU reliance will be Morocco’s Achilles’ heel this year as Morocco’s key source of tourists comes from the EU and private demand will be weighed down by big-ticket-item experts from Europe.
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