So where does the War in Ukraine go from here? Mark McNamee, Director, Europe at FrontierView sits down with Danny Thorniley, Regional Director, FrontierView CEEMEA, to briefly discuss what clients continue to ask us; where are things going and how long will this war last?
After a traumatic year of losses, the outlook remains bleak, with no real end in sight. Unfortunately, in the coming months we will see a major uptick in violence as each side attempts to conduct major offensives. This will be decisive for the long-term trajectory of the war.
In the most likely scenario, a new stalemate will be reached by the summer, with greater pressure for ceasefire talks. Akin to the Korean War, talks could proceed for years as the war of attrition continues along the line of contact until an armistice is reached. To draw on another historical analogy, such an outcome would be similar to the erection of a new Berlin Wall, though this time in the Donbas.
Ultimately, the war is only likely to end with either the collapse of the Zelenskiy regime in Kyiv or the Putin regime in Moscow, neither of which are particularly likely near-term outcomes based on current conditions.
Thus, the war is going to last – we are far more likely than not to be sitting here having another update in a year’s time commemorating the two-year anniversary of the war. Watch our 10-minute video to learn more.
Download our outlook on the one-year anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
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