Each week FrontierView’s global research team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for your business.

Ashu Agarwal on “Thai Leader Poised to Win Premiership After Opposition Falls Short”

“Thailand’s opposition seems unlikely to be able to secure the 376 seats required to obtain power. As a result, junta-leader Prayut Chan-o-cha is expected to return as the country’s leader, indicating policy continuity. However; MNCs can expect uncertainty over who will obtain a majority in the lower house and how easily policies will pass through the parliament to continue in the next few weeks.”

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Alex Schober on “High Hopes for Argentina’s Revival Are Dashed”

“We currently believe that higher-than-expected inflation will delay the economic recovery until Q3. This has caused the central bank to increase its interest rates back above 70%. Macri’s chances of re-election would certainly improve with economic recovery, but opposition fragmentation and high anti-Kirchner sentiment will play a bigger role. Our base case still calls for a Macri win.”

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William Attwell on “South Africans Vote in Election That Tests Mandela’s Legacy”

“Initial election results indicate the governing ANC will win with a decisive majority of between 55-59% – below the 62.2% it achieved in 2014. As we outline in our upcoming South Africa 2024 report, the ANC’s next political term under the leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa will be marked by incremental economic reforms. However, these will prove to be insufficient to boost growth.”

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Ashu Agarwal on “Philippines economic growth disappoints in the first quarter”

“The Philippines recorded a 4-year growth rate of 5.6% in Q1 2019. A reduction in growth of government expenditure and a contraction in public investment largely drove the slowdown. As a result, MNCs can expect growth to pick up in the upcoming quarters as the recent passage of a 2019 budget will likely push up government spending and investment levels in the next few months.”

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Ramiro Sugranes on “In first four months, Colombia household spending rose by 4.2 percent”

“Recent Colombia consumer spending estimates support our view that despite still-sluggish labor conditions, greater dynamism will endure. Household spending is estimated to have increased by 4.2% YOY in real terms during the first four months of 2019. Favorable credit conditions and improving consumer confidence will continue to drive top-line growth for B2C firms in the near term.”

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