2024 always promised to be a year of political surprises, given the amount of elections across the global economy. But even with most of these elections now behind us, political turmoil is showing no signs of abating.

Nowhere is this more true than in South Korea, whose president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law this week in an attempt to “purge anti-state forces”, triggering an unprecedented crisis that ultimately backfired against him – he is likely to be impeached as a result. Meanwhile, the French government is also in a state of limbo, following a no-confidence vote that toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Given a fragmented legislature, the way forward seems unclear. In Germany, the collapse of the ruling coalition in November only adds to political chaos.

It is against this backdrop of extreme uncertainty and volatility that we are publishing our annual “Events to Watch” report this week. In a testament to the strength of our methodology, we predicted the events in France and Germany in our  Events to Watch last year , as well as the possibility of  Joe Biden dropping out of the US presidential race . (South Korea, quite frankly, was a surprise).

This year, we look at a range of potential events, from an oil price crash to a fiscal crisis in Europe and conflict in the South China Sea. As 2024 year has shown, surprises happen more than we expect – executives should ensure they are ready for them.

As we head into the closing stages of 2024, executives will be wrapping up their planning season for next year with a clear idea of their plans and what to expect. 

Not so fast.

2025 promises to be a year of exceptional uncertainty, with key questions marks around Trump’s second presidency, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the way forward for China’s economy, amongst others.

To help executives navigate and prepare for this uncertainty, we will soon be releasing our Events to Watch 2025 report, one of FrontierView’s flagship publications.

As opposed to our Global Outlook, which states our base case for the coming year, Events to Watch is about the things you should be looking out for out of the corner of your eye, which could severely disrupt your business.

We have a proven track record of identifying some of these events, months before they occur: last year, we highlighted the probability of Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race, and the year before that we assessed the likelihood of an abrupt and sudden re-opening of the Chinese economy after zero-Covid. 

Of course, some of our potential events never materialize. But the point isn’t that they all turn out to be right. The point is that when they do, you are ready for them.

In traditional elections, one would expect the uncertainty to end more or less around the time the result is known. 

But this was no traditional election, and Donald Trump is no traditional president.

One of the key open questions that remains unanswered as we head into 2025 is: exactly which Trump are we going to get? A restrained, pro-business, pragmatic Trump, or a vengeful, ideological, and chaotic Trump? Will he tone down some of his more extreme campaign proposals on trade, immigration, and taxes, or should we take these at face value? While some of his personnel choices give us an idea, ultimately only time will tell. Businesses need to be ready for both scenarios.

Our recently released  US Post-Election Outlook  is designed precisely for this, taking a look at what a “Restrained Trump” and what a “MAGA Trump” presidency would look like, and how these would impact multinationals, both in the US and beyond. 

This will be a key input for executives looking to stay ahead of the curve under Trump 2.0.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics

Just over a week after Donald Trump’s emphatic win, the dust is starting to settle. 

One of the key takeaways so far has been something we have been emphasizing to our clients for over a year: Trump’s second presidency will be more disciplined and effective, and feature more loyalists.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Trump’s personnel appointments: his choice of chief of staff, Susie Wiles, points to his desire to run a tighter ship, and his team has already drafted several day one executive orders. Trump has also rewarded several of his staunchest and earliest supporters with jobs in his administration.

From  Latin America  to  Asia , governments across the world are now digesting what a second Trump presidency could mean for them, whether on trade, security, or immigration. One thing is sure, though: in January 2025, the Trump administration will hit the ground running.

Senior Analyst, Global Economics