2025 was never going to be a dull year, but just over a week in, it has outdone itself already.

The resignation of Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister for nearly a decade, came only days into a year that promises to be ruthless for incumbents. In the UK, a bond selloff threatens the government’s financial stability, while in South Korea, uncertainty around the fate of President Yoon following a failed coup is throwing the country into disarray. Oh, and Donald Trump wants to buy Greenland.

If the start of this year is anything to go by, one of the key themes for executives and investors in 2025 will be to remain agile in the face of disruption and surprises, rethinking key assumptions in a range of domains from trade to geopolitics and supply chains, and engaging in lateral thinking to come up with creative solutions – these skills will come in particularly handy in the context of Trump’s return to the White House. 

As the year unfolds, the ability to rethink strategies, navigate uncertainty, and respond decisively to challenges will separate those who thrive from those who falter.

At FrontierView, we are in the business of looking at the future, not the past. However, as we share with you our last edition of The Lens for the year, we can’t resist the temptation of taking a quick look back at 2024.

It was in many ways a historic year, no least on the political side of things: more than half of the world’s population headed to the polls, the largest democratic exercise ever recorded. In several elections, from India to South Africa and Mexico, voters surprised us. In others, such as in France and the UK, they expressed their anger at governments who had overseen inflation. 2024 also marked the return of Donald Trump to the White House in what promises to be, for better or for worse, an era-defining second presidency.

2024 will also go down in history as the year the bruising fight against inflation was won. Across the global economy, central banks were finally comfortable enough to begin reducing interest rates to more normal levels, a welcome piece of news for businesses, consumers, and governments alike.

Finally, from a geopolitical perspective, tensions and fractures deepened in 2024, a dynamic which is showing few signs of abating. But it is also important to also highlight the things that  didn’t happen, such as dramatic escalations in conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East, or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The world is all the better for it.

Naturally, the events of 2024 will inform those of 2025. Anti-incumbency sentiment is likely to continue prevailing in next year’s elections, such as those in Canada and Germany. Central banks will keep reducing their interest rates and, in doing so, provide support to a global economy that desperately needs it. And, as our Events to Watch for 2025 highlight, there are several geopolitical risks on the horizon. Naturally, FrontierView will continue monitoring these events closely, and providing you with the critical insights you need to help your business succeed. 

Our next edition of the Lens will be delivered on the 9th of January 2025. In the meantime, it’s been a pleasure.

The Lens: Events to Watch 2025 Edition

Last week, we released our  Events to Watch for 2025 , one of FrontierView’s two flagship global reports. This week, we go even further, with the release of our regional Events to Watch.

While our global report highlights events with the potential for global impact, our regional Events to Watch insight bites help take a closer look at potential disruptors at the regional and country level.

From a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana to a fiscal crisis in France and a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, our global and regional Events to Watch serve as a comprehensive and creative scan of the horizon heading into next year, and provide a critical input for any multinationals’ contingency planning process. Those who get this right will be well positioned to win in 2025.

For the full list of Events to Watch, as well as a replay of our recent webinar, check out our  Events to Watch for 2025 hub .

2024 always promised to be a year of political surprises, given the amount of elections across the global economy. But even with most of these elections now behind us, political turmoil is showing no signs of abating.

Nowhere is this more true than in South Korea, whose president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law this week in an attempt to “purge anti-state forces”, triggering an unprecedented crisis that ultimately backfired against him – he is likely to be impeached as a result. Meanwhile, the French government is also in a state of limbo, following a no-confidence vote that toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Given a fragmented legislature, the way forward seems unclear. In Germany, the collapse of the ruling coalition in November only adds to political chaos.

It is against this backdrop of extreme uncertainty and volatility that we are publishing our annual “Events to Watch” report this week. In a testament to the strength of our methodology, we predicted the events in France and Germany in our  Events to Watch last year , as well as the possibility of  Joe Biden dropping out of the US presidential race . (South Korea, quite frankly, was a surprise).

This year, we look at a range of potential events, from an oil price crash to a fiscal crisis in Europe and conflict in the South China Sea. As 2024 year has shown, surprises happen more than we expect – executives should ensure they are ready for them.