This Week in The Lens

“Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” Such were the wise words of the notoriously un-wise Ferris Bueller. In 2025, this quote feels less like a teenage quip and more like a strategic imperative.

As we approach the halfway mark of a highly volatile 2025, it is worth taking a moment to look around and take stock. What executives will find is that several of our once-hypothetical Events to Watch are materializing in front of our eyes: US-China trade is collapsing under the weight of 145% tariffs, while transatlantic relations are in free fall. Others events, such as a potential flooding of oil markets by Saudi Arabia, are increasing in likelihood.

Our newly released Events to Watch: Mid-Year Update offers a sobering snapshot of just how quickly global dynamics can shift. These events aren’t just analytical exercises – they are crucial tools for stress-testing strategies and sharpening contingency planning. Because in a world moving this fast, pausing to reassess isn’t just helpful. It’s essential.

On a sunny April morning, the world’s leaders gathered at St Peter’s Basilica to pay their respects to Pope Francis. On the sidelines of this most solemn of occasions, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky still found time to meet, in an attempt to mend the ties that had been so spectacularly broken in the Oval Office just a month earlier.

We know little of the outcome of the meeting – aside from the fact that it created one of the most powerful photos taken in recent times. What we do know, however, is that Trump is running out of patience with the peacemaking process, which has shown remarkably little progress – several members of his team have said that they need to see results soon, or the US would step away from the negotiations.

This is a threat the Trump administration has made before. But its hard-edged rhetoric in recent weeks suggests this time is unlikely to be a bluff, and that the clock is ticking. For multinationals, the potential breakdown of US involvement in Ukraine peace talks could mark a turning point in geopolitical risk exposure across Europe and beyond.

First it was Mexico and Canada. Then it was Volodymyr Zelensky. Then it was the US’s trading partners, and after that mostly just China. Now, it is Jay Powell’s turn to be the center of Donald Trump’s attention.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve is in a tricky spot: tariffs threaten to increase inflation, which requires higher interest rates, and slow growth, which requires lower interest rates. Given the exact impact remains unclear, Powell and the Fed are opting to stay put, by holding rates where they are right now. This has infuriated Trump, who advocates for lower borrowing costs – the president said the end of Powell’s term “can’t come soon enough”. Following a fresh bout of financial volatility, Trump walked back some of his comments, stating he had no intention of firing the Fed Chair.

While there is little risk of Powell being removed in the short-term (no least because it is legally dubious to do so), MNCs should still take this risk seriously in the coming years, notably following the end of Powell’s term in 2026. The Federal Reserve’s independence is sacrosanct in financial markets, and any threat to it is met with fierce pushback – should Trump succeed in appointing someone receptive to political influence, it would make the volatility of the last few weeks look like a mere blip.

Trump has shown that he is willing to remake America and the world. Recent evidence shows us we should take these threats seriously.

When Trump announced the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the world breathed a sigh of relief, and a sense of optimism about the US’s trade policy settled in: Donald Trump is willing to negotiate with the US’s trading partners.

We were skeptical of this optimism then, and remain so now. For one, the Trump administration is effectively negotiating 60 trade deals at once. Given negotiating just one such deal traditionally takes multiple years, the chances of reaching 60 agreements in just 90 days appear… slim. More importantly, early evidence from these negotiations isn’t exactly promising: following talks with Trump’s team, EU officials emerged unclear on what exactly the US administration was trying to achieve, and what they could offer them as a result. Senior European officials are operating under the assumption that reciprocal tariffs will eventually return.

Of course, this is all uncertain – if anything, that is the issue. MNCs should have scenario plans that account not only for the reimposition of tariffs, but also for prolonged ambiguity and last-minute policy shifts. Trump’s “pause” may simply be a tactical delay, not a change in direction. Businesses should prepare for a spectrum of outcomes, including a rapid escalation in tariffs with key partners, uneven progress across negotiations, and sector-specific exemptions that could create new winners and losers.

For our exhaustive coverage on the global fallout of the tariffs, check out our new Trump Tariff Tracker Hub.

He doubled down, he doubled down, and then he blinked.

Following what has been one of the gloomiest weeks in history for financial markets, Donald Trump has announced that he was backing down on tariffs, although only partially and temporarily: countries which haven’t retaliated against his tariffs will see their rate reduced to 10% for 90 days. On the flip side, China saw its rate increased to 125%. The strategy is less “bull in a China shop”, and more “bullying China”.

At face value, the decision is good news: it reduces the tariff level faced by companies, and shows that Trump is willing to step back from some of his more disruptive proposals, engage with trading partners, and give time for companies to adjust. Following his tweet, markets rebounded sharply, partially recovering the trillions of dollars they had lost.

But ultimately, this is the issue: the entire global trading system can be altered by a simple tweet, with no indication of what may come the next day. The sheer lack of certainty surrounding Trump’s strategy will continue to be a major headache for multinationals. One thing is clear from Trump 2.0’s trade strategy: the more it changes, the more it stays the same.