This Week in The Lens

When Trump announced the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the world breathed a sigh of relief, and a sense of optimism about the US’s trade policy settled in: Donald Trump is willing to negotiate with the US’s trading partners.

We were skeptical of this optimism then, and remain so now. For one, the Trump administration is effectively negotiating 60 trade deals at once. Given negotiating just one such deal traditionally takes multiple years, the chances of reaching 60 agreements in just 90 days appear… slim. More importantly, early evidence from these negotiations isn’t exactly promising: following talks with Trump’s team, EU officials emerged unclear on what exactly the US administration was trying to achieve, and what they could offer them as a result. Senior European officials are operating under the assumption that reciprocal tariffs will eventually return.

Of course, this is all uncertain – if anything, that is the issue. MNCs should have scenario plans that account not only for the reimposition of tariffs, but also for prolonged ambiguity and last-minute policy shifts. Trump’s “pause” may simply be a tactical delay, not a change in direction. Businesses should prepare for a spectrum of outcomes, including a rapid escalation in tariffs with key partners, uneven progress across negotiations, and sector-specific exemptions that could create new winners and losers.

For our exhaustive coverage on the global fallout of the tariffs, check out our new Trump Tariff Tracker Hub.

He doubled down, he doubled down, and then he blinked.

Following what has been one of the gloomiest weeks in history for financial markets, Donald Trump has announced that he was backing down on tariffs, although only partially and temporarily: countries which haven’t retaliated against his tariffs will see their rate reduced to 10% for 90 days. On the flip side, China saw its rate increased to 125%. The strategy is less “bull in a China shop”, and more “bullying China”.

At face value, the decision is good news: it reduces the tariff level faced by companies, and shows that Trump is willing to step back from some of his more disruptive proposals, engage with trading partners, and give time for companies to adjust. Following his tweet, markets rebounded sharply, partially recovering the trillions of dollars they had lost.

But ultimately, this is the issue: the entire global trading system can be altered by a simple tweet, with no indication of what may come the next day. The sheer lack of certainty surrounding Trump’s strategy will continue to be a major headache for multinationals. One thing is clear from Trump 2.0’s trade strategy: the more it changes, the more it stays the same.

With the stroke of a pen, Donald Trump blew up the global trading system.

The American president announced tariffs on all countries, starting at 10% but reaching much higher for around 60 of the US’s trading partners, including China, the EU, and several APAC markets. The move marks yet another stunning escalation in Trump’s attempt to redraw the global trade map, and takes the global economy into uncharted territory.

It is difficult to overstate the significance of this moment: the world’s largest economy has effectively abandoned the principle of open trade in favor of a transactional, unilateral model. The tariffs will hit global supply chains, fuel inflation, and invite a wave of retaliation that could spiral into a prolonged economic conflict.

For multinationals, this is not just a disruptive policy shift—it is a fundamental rewriting of the rules that have governed the global economy for decades. The era of global trade as we knew it is over. What comes next will be more fragmented, more volatile, and far harder to predict.

The first major political scandal of Trump 2.0 is upon us: late last week, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz made a group chat on Signal, an unauthorized messaging app, to discuss upcoming strikes on Houthi militias in Yemen, a highly sensitive military operation. Among the participants were the Vice President, the Secretary of Defense, the Director of National Intelligence and… the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic.

The revelations have caused uproar. Democrats say the situation demonstrates the incompetence and carelessness of the new administration. On their side, Republicans say the content of the chat is a testament of the rigor and cohesion of Trump’s national security team.

And yet, the longest-lasting impact of this “Signalgate” has less to do with the mistake itself, and more to do with the content of the messages, and their impact on transatlantic relations: Vice President JD Vance fumed about “bailing out Europe” once again, while Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called the region’s leaders “pathetic”. The participants of the group chat even considered charging Europe for the operation in Yemen.

Transatlantic relations are in free fall, and this will do nothing but exacerbate that dynamic. A slew of tariffs next week, which will target the EU among others, are unlikely to help. With a thaw between America and Europe looking increasingly improbable, businesses should ensure they are factoring this new geopolitical reality into their strategic plans.

It is truly difficult to keep up with world events these days. To illustrate this point, consider a brief recap of some notable events that have happened in just the last week:

The ceasefire in Gaza has collapsed. Germany has seen the largest shift in government policy in decades. China is finally on the cusp of supporting lackluster consumer spending. The US and Russia are negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. Türkiye is suddenly mired in a political crisis following the arrest of the country’s main opposition leader. Trump is seemingly serious about hiking up tariffs on most trading partners.

What is a business to do in such an environment? The answer is a combination of reactive ability, particularly in response to fast-moving, unexpected events, as well as proactive thinking that anticipates, monitors, and mitigates bigger-picture, structural risks and dynamics. Far from being a nice-to-have, the ability to navigate and plan for geopolitical and economic ability is a skillset that needs to be built into every facet of your business.