Use FrontierView’s State Spending Index to inform your subnational strategy in India
Industrial and healthcare companies serving India’s public sector should note the state-level dynamics of governments, their spending patterns and priorities, and the health of government finances while prioritizing their India business by state. FrontierView’s State Spending Index incorporates these metrics to assist companies in their prioritization exercise. Firms should also supplement this quantitative index with qualitative metrics such as the timing of election cycles and pro-business incentives and regulations announced by state governments.
To aid companies in their India subnational strategy, FrontierView has developed an index to determine which states are most likely to be lucrative for companies dependent on government spending. The final index is determined by several quantitative inputs—including fiscal stability metrics such as fiscal deficit, debt, and the share of total revenue from own tax and non-tax sources—and spending metrics such as spending on infrastructure, healthcare, education, urban development, rural development, and tendency to undershoot budget estimates.
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh emerge as the top-performing states on account of high state spending on key sectors and healthy finances. Rajasthan, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Kerala as well as tier 2 states Jharkhand, Punjab, and Bihar are the weakest performers, with low spending and a weak financial position, making their budgets vulnerable to large changes.
However, the ranking of these states is not static, and adjustments in the weightage to different metrics reveal key changes to prioritization. Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh are the strongest states for infrastructure-focused metrics, while Odisha and Haryana emerge as top performers for healthcare spending (click next on the image to view state rankings by infrastructure and healthcare metrics).
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