We recently released Events to Watch 2024, one of our flagship reports which highlights events that do not feature in our base case, but which hold the potential to be highly disruptive to multinationals plans.
As the last few years have shown, the geopolitical landscape is increasingly uncertain: geopolitics therefore features heavily as a theme in our Events to Watch 2024. We consider the likelihood and impact of events such as a widespread breakout of current tensions in the Middle East, as well as reduced US support for Ukraine and a Chinese blockade on Taiwan.
On the political side, three of our events center around the US presidential election, which is set to take place in November 2024: two of those look at scenarios in which either Joe Biden or Donald Trump is unable to run in the contest, while a third looks at the risk of political violence following an inconclusive election result. We also highlight a potential political backlash against the Europe’s green agenda, following elections in the European Parliament.
Finally, our global Events to Watch also look at potential downside macroeconomic events in the world’s major economies, which would threaten to disrupt the global growth picture in 2024: a US recession, a sharp deceleration in Chinese growth, and financial panic in Europe.
Crucially, several of our Events to Watch this year are interconnected: for example, an outbreak of war in the Middle East drastically increases the likelihood of an oil price shock, which in turn increases the likelihood of a US hard landing or fiscal pressures in Europe.
As companies build their plans for 2024, they should assess their exposure to these events, and ensure they have plans in place to deal with them should they materialize. Executives should also make sure they are being proactive by keeping a close eye on the signposts for these events, which will allow for flexible and timely responses.
Watch our December episode of GlobalView featuring our events to watch for 2024
At FrontierView, our mission is to help our clients grow and win in their most important markets. We are excited to share that FiscalNote, a leading technology provider of global policy and market intelligence has acquired FrontierView. We will continue to cover issues and topics driving growth in your business, while fully leveraging FiscalNote’s portfolio within the global risk, ESG, and geopolitical advisory product suite.
Subscribe to our weekly newsletter The Lens published by our Global Economics and Scenarios team which highlights high-impact developments and trends for business professionals. For full access to our offerings, start your free trial today and download our complimentary mobile app, available on iOS and Android.