2024 Election Forecast
Venezuela’s presidential elections are scheduled for July 28. For the first time since the election of Hugo Chavez Frías in 1999, opposition parties are expected to win over Chavismo by a clear majority. However, it remains uncertain whether the incumbent, Nicolas Maduro Moros, will be willing to concede the election results.
Scenarios and their Implications:
Chavismo Refuses to Concede (40% Probability): Venezuela’s electoral council, influenced by Chavismo, declares Maduro the winner despite a significant opposition turnout. The opposition’s Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado allege electoral fraud. Major protests erupt and are met with severe violence from the armed forces. Gonzalez and Machado face the risk of imprisonment or assassination amidst the repression. The partial lifting of U.S. sanctions is reversed, and new sanctions are imposed. Major oil companies like Repsol, Exxon, and Royal Dutch Shell exit Venezuela, leading to another supply crisis in the country. This triggers a new wave of migration, with hundreds of thousands or even millions of Venezuelans fleeing to Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Central America, Mexico, and the United States.
Negotiated Transition (30% Probability): Gonzalez wins the election, with Chavismo conceding defeat, leading to a peaceful political transition. This is facilitated by the lack of support from the armed forces and the willingness of the victors to pardon Chavismo’s junta members, allowing the transition to proceed smoothly. Major political violence is avoided as negotiations between Chavismo and the opposition commence, while the U.S. State Department lifts sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry. Limited private investments begin to slowly return. However, until significant institutional changes occur, Venezuela’s economy will remain weak due to a heavily devalued currency, lack of access to credit markets, a non-operational welfare state, an impoverished population, and poor economic diversification.
Chavismo Refuses to Concede but is Ousted from Power (20% Probability): Venezuela’s electoral council declares a victory for Maduro, while the opposition asserts claims of electoral fraud, leading to widespread protests. Despite Maduro’s intentions to suppress the demonstrations, the armed forces either completely or partially refuse to support Chavismo’s directives. The Maduro regime is subsequently ousted by the military and dissident factions within Chavismo. A transitional government is permitted to assume power; however, institutions still controlled by Chavismo are likely to obstruct executive actions undertaken by the newly established government.
National Unity Government is Declared (10% Probability): Chavismo refuses to concede, but Maduro is not permitted to remain in power. The opposition initiates negotiations with Chavismo, resulting in the establishment of either a transitional regime or a National Unity Government. It remains uncertain whether Gonzalez will be allowed to lead this government. Partial sanctions persist under this arrangement, but institutional changes necessary for the transition are implemented. Major violence is avoided.
What We Know:
- In our most pessimistic projection, Edmundo Gonzalez is expected to receive 6.6 million votes, whereas in the most favorable scenario, he is projected to garner 8.1 million votes.
- Under the most optimistic scenarios, Nicolás Maduro is projected to secure 4.4 million votes, with the minimum threshold being 3.3 million votes.
- A total of 107 opposition activists have been detained by the police in 2024, with 77 of these detentions occurring since July 4, marking the official start of the campaign.
- There have been instances where voters had their designated voting sites changed at the last minute, and several election centers have been closed.
- Despite a major victory in the opposition primaries, elected candidate Maria Corina Machado is prohibited from running in the presidential race by Venezuela’s electoral council, leading to the reimposition of minor sanctions by the Biden administration.
- After the banning of Machado’s substitute, Corina Yoris, former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez is chosen to run as the opposition’s candidate.
- Maduro has expressed a willingness to return to the negotiating table with the United States after Chavismo and the opposition signed a political agreement in Barbados in October 2023, stating their willingness to respect the results of the 2024 elections. However, he did not reference the Barbados agreement made with opposition representatives, but instead mentioned the DOHA agreement with the US, the details of which remain undisclosed to the public.
- Maduro has suggested that a ‘bloodbath’ could ensue if Chavismo does not secure victory in the election.
- Machado has publicly urged military officials to refrain from using lethal force against protesters. This appeal highlights concerns about potential political repression during and following the election period.
- Gonzalez and Machado have indicated their readiness to negotiate and offer more lenient terms to Chavismo candidates to persuade the regime to facilitate a transition.
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