Mexico Elections: Morena Coalition leads

Multinationals face a challenging environment after MORENA’s landslide victory

Multinationals should expect high levels of regulatory risks after the June 2 elections in Mexico. As FrontierView forecasted, preliminary results indicate that Claudia Sheinbaum (MORENA, PT, PVEM) won the presidency. However, MORENA and its allies unexpectedly secured a qualified majority in both chambers of Congress. This increases the likelihood of passing the controversial constitutional reforms submitted by AMLO in February 2024. Besides, the MORENA-led coalition will have control over federal budgets, a stronger influence on ratifying Supreme Court ministers, plus other extraordinary powers residing in the Senate. MORENA will also govern 23 of the 32 states, including Mexico City, Veracruz, and Puebla, expanding its subnational reach.


  • On June 2, Mexicans elected more than 20,000 public posts, including the president, Congress, and 9 governorships.
  • Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate from the incumbent party, won the presidential election with an estimated 59% of the votes. The main opposition candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez (PAN, PRI, PRD), obtained 28% of the votes. Jorge Álvarez Máynez, from the Movimiento Ciudadano, secured 10.5% of the votes. 
  • Sheinbaum will be Mexico’s first female president and will take office on October 1. 
  • After her victory, Sheinbaum delivered a conciliatory message, promising fiscal austerity and discipline; vowing to respect Banxico’s autonomy; asserting her intention to promote national and foreign investment; and guaranteeing freedom of expression and political diversity. 
  • Preliminary results indicate that MORENA and its allies won a supermajority (of at least 66%) in both the Chamber of Deputies (73%) and the Senate (66%). The new legislature takes possession on September 1.
  • MORENA also won the highly competitive election in Mexico City and the states of Veracruz, Puebla, Yucatán, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Morelos. Movimiento Ciudadano maintained the governorship of the state of Jalisco—one of the most populated and industrialized states—and the opposition coalition (PAN, PRI, PRD) won the state of Guanajuato.
  • The MXN: USD depreciated by 3%, from 16.98 on June 2, to 17.50 on June 3. 
  • Electoral participation reached 60%, slightly declining from 63% in 2018. 
  • This has been the most violent election in Mexico’s recent history, with 31 candidates assassinated. between 2023-2024, most of them for local posts. 
  • On election day, several incidents—from ballot theft attempts to gunshots—were reported; however, all presidential candidates and their parties accepted the preliminary results.

Our View

Sheinbaum’s victory with a supermajority in Congress represents a high regulatory risk for companies in Mexico. This is due to MORENA’s constitutional reforms, which include a judiciary reform to elect Supreme Court ministers by popular vote; an autonomous institutes’ reform to centralize regulatory bodies under the executive power; and an electoral reform to reduce financing for political parties, decrease the number of legislators, and select Electoral Tribunal judges via popular vote. If approved, these reforms could deteriorate the operating environment by centralizing power under the Executive branch, reducing transparency, and politicizing the judiciary system. MORENA and its allies may pass these reforms with the numbers obtained in the elections. 

On the policy front, Sheinbaum will likely continue with AMLO’s flagship projects, like the Maya Train, the Interoceanic Corridor, the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA); a focus on boosting domestic consumption; strengthening the National Guard; and using the military for infrastructure projects. Sheinbaum may develop her flagship projects, like a Mexico-Querétaro passenger train or a Mazatlán-Durango freight train.

Despite her landslide victory, Sheinbaum will also face challenges. The first will be a growing fiscal deficit, which adds pressure to cut government spending and raise taxes. Multinationals should expect a fiscal reform in late 2025 or 2026. Sheinbaum may also struggle to maintain internal cohesion within MORENA and its coalition, a delicate balance that AMLO has barely maintained. Finally, she may be less popular than AMLO and likely rely more on compromises, both within MORENA and with other actors. These challenges may push Sheinbaum toward pragmatism and foster a closer relationship with the private sector. Still, the new administration will have the largest concentration of power in the past 25 years.

At FrontierView, our mission is to help our clients grow and win in their most important markets. We are excited to share that FiscalNote, a leading technology provider of global policy and market intelligence has acquired FrontierView. We will continue to cover issues and topics driving growth in your business, while fully leveraging FiscalNote’s portfolio within the global risk, ESG, and geopolitical advisory product suite.

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter The Lens published by our Global Economics and Scenarios team which highlights high-impact developments and trends for business professionals. For full access to our offerings, start your free trial today and download our complimentary mobile app, available on iOS and Android.