Trump Tariffs: The ongoing US-China Trade War will accelerate Chinese dumping across MENA

Firms will need to reassess supplier exposure to Chinese inputs and prepare for rising competition

*FrontierView’s index assesses a given country’s vulnerability to Chinese dumping, using factors including trade exposure to China, price sensitivity, anti-dumping measures (if any), and overall barriers to trade

China’s role in the Middle East’s trade has increased significantly in recent years, with most countries in the region facing a flood of Chinese imports. While initially positioned as ‘cheaper’ alternatives’, Chinese goods have quickly developed into midrange product categories as well, with companies now employing better after-sales, and some firms localising production in some GCC markets, making them more attractive in public/quasi-public B2B and B2G demand. The escalating US-China trade war will exacerbate this trend, driving Chinese manufacturers to push more and more products onto MEA economies, eroding MNC market share and undercutting domestic manufacturing.

As shown in FrontierView’s Dumping Vulnerability Index (DVI), some of the most vulnerable countries include Egypt and Türkiye, where manufactures already grapple with significant currency volatility. Alongside this, Iraq has seen a significant rise over the past year in cheaper, counterfeit goods across sectors. Morocco, emerging as a vehicle manufacturing hub for Europe, could lose its competitive advantage with an influx of Chinese finished goods into the market. In the GCC, notably in Saudi Arabia, Chinese imports range from consumer to industrial goods, but remain heavily concentrated in machinery, manufactured goods, and transport equipment – for the time being, but will gradually diversify into new segments including healthcare. With an increasing number of MOUs signed at a state level in Saudi Arabia, Chinese products and suppliers are quickly winning the seal of approval in the private sector. That combined with the longer-than-expected lingering of price sensitivity, will catalyse a growing adoption of Chinese products in the Saudi market.

Subsequently, firms can expect more GCC-wide anti-dumping actions in 2025, particularly in sectors such as construction and machinery. Utilizing targeted strategies to protect market share will be a crucial aspect for long-term planning in MENA into 2026, as the ongoing trade tensions shape trade routes more permanently.

Top Economies & Sectors

Machinery & Equipment

Firms in the industrial space will see a significant increase in Chinese exports into the region, notably in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye. The UAE continues to act as a major transit and re-export hub, with a high concentration of Chinese manufactured goods, machinery, and electronics. Egypt, Iraq and Algeria are likely to lean heavily on cheaper Chinese imports, potentially undermining any local equipment producers or regional suppliers.

Electronics & Appliances

While the exemption of appliances from tariffs remains unclear, a fresh wave of redirected supply of white goods and consumer electronics will intensify competition across the region. Chinese electronics already dominate retail shelves in the GCC and Iraq, with the latter continuing to absorb more low-cost Chinese goods, reinforcing existing market trends. Another notable market is Lebanon, where significantly weakened purchasing power has driven demand for Chinese appliances, dominating formal and informal retail.

Automotive

Saudi Arabia is one of the top importers of Chinese EVs in the region, with the government signing a USD 5.6 billion production partnership with Chinese EV maker Human Horizons. Despite this, the Kingdom also aims to localize EV production with American manufacturer Lucid Motors, targeting production of 300,000 cars annually. Local content targets and export ambitions could be undercut if Chinese vehicles flood the market. In Egypt and Morocco, both of which are building up automotive manufacturing bases for export (particularly to Europe), the inflow of Chinese vehicles could challenge competitiveness and price points. Iraq, where demand for affordable vehicles is rising, will likely become an easy target for Chinese automakers, reducing space for other brands.

Construction Materials

The significant rise in Chinese construction materials may see a slowdown as the GCC imposes anti-dumping duties on imports of ceramic tiles, aluminium, and steel from China. On the other hand, markets such as Iraq and Egypt are at a higher risk of dumping as the former undertakes significant reconstruction efforts.

Consumer Goods

China is emerging as a dominant player in the low- to mid-tier consumer goods segment across MENA. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly targeting mass-market segments with competitively priced products in categories such as clothing and footwear, toys, kitchenware, and home décor—through formal retail and informal trade networks. Chinese products will continue to appeal to price-sensitive consumers, particularly in markets such as Egypt and Iraq.

Actions to Consider:

• Firms will need to proactively launch targeted brand campaigns that highlight product reliability, safety, and premium after-sales service to protect market share against lower-cost Chinese alternatives.
• Diversify local distributor relationships and invest in last-mile delivery capabilities to strengthen in-market agility and reduce reliance on re-export hubs.
• Develop region-specific, value-tier product lines that retain core brand trust while meeting the price expectations of middle- and lower-income consumers across Egypt, Iraq, and Algeria.
• Design tailored incentive programs for key retailers — including margin guarantees, co-branded marketing, and exclusive product bundles — to secure shelf space and brand visibility in an increasingly crowded environment dominated by Chinese imports.