Per quick count results, Prabowo has comfortably crossed the 50  threshold required to win the elections

Election winner Prabowo Subianto is closely aligned with the current administration

Companies should expect broad policy continuity after Prabowo assumes the Indonesian presidency in October 2024. Prabowo will likely carry forward many of Jokowi’s key policies such as the flagship capital city project, Nusantara. The project, which is currently in the early stages, involves the construction of government buildings, schools, and hospitals and will likely expand to additional areas such as malls and industrial facilities from 2025. B2B firms serving the construction sector should capitalize on continued high spending on the project in the coming years. Prabowo will likely also continue Jokowi’s policy drive to grow the electric vehicle industry through incentives and subsidies, providing demand opportunities for firms in the automotive sector. He will also retain Jokowi’s focus on commodity downstreaming, maintaining the bans on exports of nickel and bauxite to compel companies to process natural commodities onshore rather than exporting them.

Other than continuing Jokowi’s signature policies, Prabowo also plans to establish some of his own. Most notably, he plans to lower the personal income tax for those who earn no more than IDR 120 million (US$ 7,700) annually, a move that will bolster demand from the lower-income population starting in 2025. Additionally, he aims to reduce taxes for small and midsize enterprises operating for less than two years, which will likely aid investment activity by these firms in the medium term. Foreign investment will also be a key focus for Prabowo (especially since multinationals are looking more actively at diversifying their global manufacturing footprint) with plans to simplify regulations and provide tax holidays and tax allowances for investors once he takes office. 


  • Indonesia’s presidential elections took place on February 14, with three candidates running for president: Prabowo Subianto, Anies Baswedan, and Ganjar Pranowo.
  • Per a preliminary quick count, Prabowo secured roughly 58% of votes, comfortably exceeding the 50% threshold required to win the elections. Former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan received roughly 25% of total votes, and Ganjar Pranowo received 17%.

Our View

Official results of the 2024 elections will take up to 35 days from polling day to be finalized. However, based on quick count results’ historical performance and the low margins of error on their results for this election, Prabowo is almost certain to become the next president of Indonesia. (In the extremely unlikely event that Prabowo falls short of the 50% threshold in the official count, firms should note that a second round would take place in June 2024 and Ganjar and Anies would likely join forces to challenge him.) 

Prabowo’s victory in the 2024 elections was in large part due to support from incumbent President Jokowi, who is highly popular among Indonesian voters. Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran was allowed to run as a vice-presidential candidate with Prabowo after a controversial court ruling that overturned a disqualifying age restriction. After Prabowo added Gibran to his ticket, his popularity rose sharply, positioning him as the clear frontrunner to win the elections. Jokowi also engaged in high pre-election spending to further boost Prabowo’s chances of victory in the elections. Having offered Prabowo substantial support, Jokowi will be well positioned to continue influencing policymaking in Indonesia. These election results will also bode well for the exchange rate and investor sentiment, as they resulted in a quick first-round victory for a candidate that is closely aligned with the current administration.

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