Global Leadership Briefing Q1 2021

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Overview Table of Contents About the Author Explore FrontierView

Published February 2021

A growth rebound in 2021 masks underlying weakness

Despite optimistic sentiment in many global headquarters, 2021 will be a challenging year. We expect rapid swings across industries and customer segments as the domestic operating environment evolves with shifts in fiscal support programs, monetary policy, and changes to social distancing regulations as countries continue to grapple with COVID-19. This will lead to ongoing demand swings and supply chain disruptions across 2021, and require significant executive attention paid to country performance monitoring and market-specific adjustments to strategic plans. For executives responsible for emerging markets outside of China, there remains a risk of substantial currency depreciations.

The 2021 Global Leadership Briefing report details actionable strategies to help executives win in 2021 and beyond. Download the FULL 38-page report now.

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Executive Summary … 3

Overview of This Report … 4

2021 Forecasts: Global Macroeconomic Outlook … 5-10

Global Macroeconomic Outlook … 6

Global Macro Drivers … 7

FX Outlook: Currency Stability Expected in 2021 … 8

Global Forecasts … 9

Timing the Recovery … 10

Pulse of the Market: On-the-Ground Executive Insights … 11-26

Asia Pacific … 12

Our View on Asia Pacific … 13

North America … 14

Our View on North America … 15

Latin America… 16

Our View on Latin America… 17

Central and Eastern Europe … 18

Our View on Russia … 19

Our View on Central Europe… 20

Middle East and North Africa… 21

Our View on MENA & Turkey … 22

Sub-Saharan Africa … 23

Our View of Sub-Saharan Africa … 24

Western Europe … 25

Our View on Western Europe … 26

Events to Watch: Risk and Opportunity Scenario Tracking … 27-28

2021 Events to Watch: Updates Since November … 28

Special Topic: FX Vulnerability and Mitigation Strategies … 29-34

Capital Flows and Currency Volatility … 30

Currency Crises Remain a Key Risk in 2021 and Beyond… 31

Ensure Internal Alignment on FX Risk Management … 32

Tactics for Local Leaders … 33

A Range of Tactics can Support Local Teams … 34

Actions to Take: Q1 Agenda for Multinationals … 35-36

Q1 International Action Items for Headquarters … 36

Ryan Connelly

Practice Leader, Global Economics

Ryan oversees global economics research for FrontierView. With almost 15 years of experience, he supports clients on strategic planning, market prioritization, risk identification and contingency planning in their most important markets. Before joining FrontierView, Ryan worked at Morgan Stanley on a Special Situations Desk. Ryan holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations and affairs from The George Washington University as well as a master’s degree in international economics from The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

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