Subnational prioritization will yield somewhat different results for B2C, B2B, and B2G companies
Companies with a vast geographical presence in India should prioritize states that are expected to outperform in 2023 in order to maximize revenue gains. In addition to GDP growth forecasts across states, companies should also track other types of indicators, depending on the segment they serve, to gauge the true size of subnational opportunities. B2C companies should account for trends in per capita income, B2B companies should note trends in manufacturing and construction, and B2G companies should note state government finance dynamics.
Overview
The Indian economy is forecasted to grow by 5.8% YOY in FY 2022–2023 (April 2022–March 2023) and by 5.7% YOY in FY 2023–2024. Considering the country’s federal system, different states perform at different levels of growth due to varying state-level policies, demographics, and economic structures.
Our View
States will revert to pre-pandemic patterns of growth in 2022. States such as Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha—which saw the highest levels of growth between 2015 and 2019—are the states that will continue to outperform the rest in 2022 and 2023. When divided by segment, the following states are likely to present the largest opportunities:
B2C companies: Delhi, Goa, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana are forecasted to have the largest per capita income levels in 2023.
B2B companies: Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Gujarat, and Himachal Pradesh saw the highest growth rates between 2015 and 2019.
B2G companies: Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana have the lowest debt and deficit levels and are the most likely to be able to meet their spending targets (more details here).
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