The US-China trade war 2.0: March update
According to our scenarios, there is an 80% chance of further tariff hikes on China…
Thomas ZhangMarch 12, 2025
Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 presidential election
We believe Biden’s successor, Kamala Harris, will lose to Donald Trump in November In our…
Antoine BradleyJuly 25, 2024
US interest rates are likely to fall in late 2024
The risk of inflationary pressures will continue to plague the US economic outlook Since the…
Antoine BradleyJuly 22, 2024
Canada’s immigration push risks backfiring
An undersupplied housing stock and high mortgage rates are putting pressure on Canadian consumers—and on…
Antoine BradleyApril 29, 2024
Signs of stubborn inflation limit the scope for rate cuts
Labor market resilience and housing inflation are slowing the path down to the Fed’s 2%…
Antoine BradleyMarch 21, 2024
US growth is set to slow, but it will likely avoid a recession
Lower inflation and a robust labor market will keep the US economy in expansive territory…
Antoine BradleyNovember 30, 2023
US growth has remained resilient
High interest rates will weigh on economic activity in 2023 and 2024 The US economy…
Antoine BradleyAugust 17, 2023
The American economy enjoyed a stronger-than-expected start to 2023
The US will still experience a short contraction in 2023 Given the American economy’s strong…
Antoine BradleyMarch 23, 2023
The Silicon Valley Bank failure is the largest in the US since 2008
However, the risk of contagion to the rest of the financial system remains limited The…
Antoine BradleyMarch 16, 2023
US tech layoffs belie a highly resilient labor market
The Fed will need to see further easing in labor market conditions before it decides…
Antoine BradleyFebruary 23, 2023
Canada’s housing downturn will exacerbate the economic slowdown
Higher mortgages and falling home prices will dent consumer confidence and spending The double whammy…
Antoine BradleyDecember 1, 2022
The Fed continues to tighten aggressively
Lingering inflation will prompt the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates much higher for…
Jamie FallonSeptember 29, 2022
‘Reshoring’ production back to the US
Fresh government support will boost some US industries, but deep macroeconomic forces will keep US…
Jamie FallonSeptember 13, 2022
US interest rates may be “higher for longer”
The US benchmark interest rate will reach 3.75% by December, but Fed policy in 2023…
Jamie FallonAugust 4, 2022
Aggressive Fed hikes are driving a US dollar surge
Most currencies will face further downward pressure for the rest of 2022 A strong US…
Elizabeth RustJuly 28, 2022