The US-China trade war 2.0: March update
According to our scenarios, there is an 80% chance of further tariff hikes on China…
Thomas ZhangMarch 12, 2025
The far-right AfD wins a state election in Germany
Extremist parties' strong performance will add pressures to the Germany's ruling coalition The far-right AfD’s…
Martin BelchevSeptember 6, 2024
Brazil’s 2025 budget is a step towards fiscal responsibility
Our View The 2025 federal budget, totaling BRL 5.86 trillion, a 5.45% YOY increase, was…
Sofia CarvalhoSeptember 6, 2024
China Real Estate Sector Monitor
China’s economic outlook varies widely under different real estate scenarios China's real estate sector, once…
Tony LoSeptember 6, 2024
The mpox outbreak will not derail economic growth
The hospitality industry would be vulnerable to a downside scenario involving the rapid spread of…
Matthew KindingerSeptember 6, 2024
China Industrial Overcapacity Monitor
Impacts will vary across industrial sectors as overcapacity persists The collapse of China's real estate…
Tony LoAugust 22, 2024
Iraq has approved its 2024 budget
The budget entails higher total spending across sectors Iraq's parliament's approval of the 2024 budget…
Yasmina ZamelAugust 22, 2024
Easing lending rates across Europe
Sticky underlying price pressures, however, may delay the pace of the cuts, but the outlook…
Martin BelchevAugust 22, 2024
Ukraine makes a bold and high-stakes surprise attack
The long-term success of the operation remains uncertain, given Ukraine's ongoing struggles with resources and…
Nigar JafarovaAugust 15, 2024
Chile’s investment outlook remains subdued
Capex opportunities remain concentrated in the public housing, mining, and security sectors Although consumer spending…
Rodrigo Eyzaguirre MiragliaAugust 15, 2024
Protests in Nigeria will necessitate agility in planning
Multinationals are advised to implement short-term pricing, marketing, and product portfolio measures to overcome worsening…
Sari El HabrAugust 15, 2024
Venezuela’s presidential election gridlock
Civil unrest is likely to continue for the rest of H2 2024 or until a…
Juan VelezAugust 8, 2024
Natural gas shortages loom for Colombia
Natural gas findings and production are falling behind, forcing the country to increase their reliance…
Juan VelezAugust 8, 2024
The case against Thailand’s PM
PM Srettha’s removal would impact a range of key policies being implemented by the current…
Shivank SehgalAugust 8, 2024
Sanctions on Lukoil are unlikely to lead to fuel shortages
In June, Ukraine decided to harden existing sanctions against Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil company. This…
Jon DavenportAugust 8, 2024